Attributing forest fires in Europe to climate change

Context and challenges

These events have attracted the attention of not only the scientific community, but also the public and the media. The impact of anthropogenic climate change has been widely debated, but to date no study has quantified its exact role in the occurrence and spread of the fires. Attributing these fires to a specific factor is therefore a major challenge for the scientific community. 

Goals

The aim of this project is to quantify the role of human emissions in the occurrence of extreme fires across Europe. To answer this question, we will use a set of observations and climate simulations together with a Bayesian statistical model of fire. The project will establish a link between the climate community and the fire community, and will help to better guide national policies aimed at reducing society’s vulnerability to fire risk. Finally, the project will promote a collective awareness of climate change and its impact on fire, a natural hazard representative of global changes. 

INRAE structures